By Paul Honda
paul@hondareport.com
Friday, June 15, 2007

The weirdest, possibly coolest idea out of my fried brain this week is underway.

While doing some research about Chinese internet search company Sina Corp. (which just partnered with Google on Tuesday), I came across the name Paul Loo.

Paul Loo? Well, back in 2003, Loo led a Star-Bulletin money guru contest at the midway point. Among a half-dozen or so money managers from the islands, he was well ahead of the pack. Each money man picked three stocks for the contest.

Loo's best performer at that midway point of '03? Yup. Sina Corp. (SINA). Here's a look at the contest at the start, published in the Star-Bulletin on Jan. 12 of '03.

I thought it might be interesting to look back at each contestant's trio of stocks and see how those picks are doing today, 4 1/2 years later. I allocated $10,000 (fake money, of course) to each stock of each player. The equal weighting gives us a look at the quality of the picks.

Boy, did my eyes pop on some of these remarkable powers of intellect.

1. Paul Loo, Morgan Stanley

Loo's big winner? SINA. A $10,000 investment would be worth more than $52,000 today. Holy China cash cow!

Then: SINA $7.41, GS $70.38, MSFT $27

Now: SINA $39.12, GS $226.19, MSFT $30.49

Gain %: SINA 427%, GS 221%, MSFT 12%

Market value (starting value = $10,000 per stock): SINA $52,793, GS $32,139, MSFT $11,292

Total market value (starting value = $30,000): $96, 225

Percentage gain: 220%

2. Richard Dole, Dole Capital

Dole was most excellent, getting a double, a near-double, and a triple out of his bag of stocks.

Then: ALEX $26.31, LMT $58.71, NDAQ $10.25

Now: ALEX $52.62, LMT $96.55, NDAQ $31.61

Gain %: ALEX 100%, LMT 64%, NDAQ 208%

Net dollar value (starting value = $10,000 per stock): ALEX $19,999, LMT $16,445, NDAQ $30,839

Total dollar value (starting value = $30,000): $67,284

Percentage gain: 124%

3. Dwight Melton, Patience & Discipline Investment Club

Patience, indeed. Melton hit it out of the park with BSTE.

Then: BSTE $35.82, VFIIX $10.76, FCN $27.27

Now: BSTE $92.20, VFIIX $9.99, FCN $37.60

Gain %: BSTE 157%, VFIIX -7%, FCN 37%

Market value (starting value = $10,000 per stock): BSTE $25,739, VFIIX $9.284, FCN $13,787

Total market value (starting value = $30,000): $48,811

Percentage gain: 62%

4. Mike Corcoran, InvestMentoring, NAIC Aloha Hawaii Chapter

Corcoran was on-point with his picks, even Accredo Health, which was bought out at a 43% premium in 2005 by Medco. At one point in '03, ACDO was down 21%.

Then: EBAY $17.48, RTN $31.60, ACDO $35.25

Now: EBAY $32.04, RTN $56.54, ACDO $43.33 (2005)

Gain %: EBAY 83%, RTN 78%, ACDO 23%

Net dollar value (starting value = $10,000 per stock): EBAY $18,329, RTN $17,892, ACDO $12,292

Total dollar value (starting value = $30,000): $48,514

Percentage gain: 61%

5. Richard Coghlan, North Nineteen Forty (Hilo)

Coghlan's home run? CSCO.

Then: SUNW $3.55, INTC $16.54, CSCO $15.22

Now: SUNW $5.05, INTC $24.24, CSCO $27.39

Gain %: SUNW 42%, INTC 46%, CSCO 79%

Market value (starting value = $10,000 per stock): SUNW $14,225, INTC $14,655, CSCO $17,996

Total market value (starting value = $30,000): $46,876

Percentage gain: 56%

• Barry Hyman, Financial & Investment Management Group

Hyman went with three mutual funds, including one focused on Japan. Of the three, one is non-existent (CVT) so I'll have to do more digging. Another, PJF, trades as an ETF. The only one that is still alive as it was in 2003 is BIF (Boulder Growth & Income Fund).

Then: PJF n/a, CVT n/a, BIF $4.50

Now: BIF $11.06

Gain %: BIF 145%

Market value (starting value = $10,000 per stock): BIF $24,577

Total dollar value: n/a

Percentage gain: n/a

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul does not own shares of these companies.

Previous Article: Pupule finds more stock boomers
Next Article: Opsware: Andreessen working magic again

Comments

Post A Comment